H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator

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Free H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator (FY 2027 Update)

The H-1B lottery is no longer just “luck.” With the proposed FY 2027 “Weighted Selection” protocols, your Wage Level now dictates your destiny. If you are on F1 OPT or a STEM Extension, you need to know where you stand before the March registration window opens.

This is the reality check you need.

Use our free H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator to predict your specific probability. Unlike generic tools, this calculator analyzes your Degree (Master’s vs. Bachelor’s) and your LCA Wage Level (I, II, III, or IV) to forecast your selection chances against the projected 350,000+ applicants.

How to Use This H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator

1. Select Your Education: Choose “US Master’s” if you have an advanced degree from a public or non-profit US university.
2. Select Wage Level: Check your LCA (Labor Condition Application). Are you Level I (Entry) or Level IV (Fully Competent)?
3. Calculate: Click the button. The H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator will instantly show your weighted probability percentage.

[Link to related post: Understanding H-1B LCA Wage Levels]

The “Weighted Selection” Explained

For years, the selection process was random. A Junior Analyst had the same chance as a Senior Architect. Not anymore.

Under the new wage-based hierarchy, USCIS prioritizes higher salaries to protect US workers.

• Level IV (Highest): You get maximum weight. You are prioritized first.
• Level III: You have a significant advantage over the general pool.
• Level I (Entry): You are in the “Danger Zone.” You are only selected after the higher levels are filled.

Why Your Wage Level Matters

Our H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator highlights a critical risk: Level 1 applications are dangerous.

If your employer files a Level 1 LCA, your statistical odds drop significantly. The algorithm prioritizes Level 4 and Level 3 candidates first. If the cap (85,000 spots) is filled by those higher levels, Level 1 candidates may never even enter the lottery.

[Link to related post: How to negotiate a higher Wage Level for H-1B]

Comparison: Random vs. Weighted Selection

Critical Warning for Level 1 Applicants

If the tool shows a “High Risk” result for you, take action immediately.

Expert Tip: Talk to your employer about moving to Level 2 before registration. Even a small salary bump can move you from the “Risk Pool” to the “Standard Pool,” doubling your statistical chance of selection.

Final Thoughts

Don’t register blindly. Use the H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator today to plan your strategy. If your odds are low, consult an attorney about alternative visas like O-1 or L-1 before the March deadline.

How the “Weighted Selection” Actually Works

Most people think the H-1B lottery is just random luck. That changed in 2026.

The new “Weighted Selection” algorithm works like a Priority Queue. USCIS now sorts all 350,000+ registrations into four “buckets” based on the DOL Wage Level derived from your LCA (Labor Condition Application).

• The Math: Your Probability = (Your Weights / Total Pool Weights) × Total Cap Space.
• The Reality: If you are Level 4, you are in the first bucket. The algorithm fills the 85,000 spots starting from the top. By the time it reaches Level 1 (Entry Level), the cap might already be full. This tool simulates that specific “overflow” risk.

Real-World Scenarios: See Your Odds Change

See how a small salary change impacts your H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator results.

Scenario A: The “Safe” Level 2 Analyst

• Profile: Rahul, a Business Analyst.
• Salary: $72,000 (Level 1 in NYC).
• Risk: At Level 1, his odds are <15%. He is likely to be rejected.
• The Fix: His employer raises the offer to $86,000 (Level 2).
• Result: His odds jump to ~35%. That $14k raise doubled his chances.

Scenario B: The “Master’s Cap” Advantage

• Profile: Priya, a CS Grad from a US University.
• Wage Level: Level 1 (Entry).
• The Edge: Even though she is Level 1, she gets two dips in the lottery. First in the General pool (where she might fail), then in the specific “20,000 Master’s Only” pool.
• Result: Her odds are 12% higher than Rahul’s, even at the same salary.

Risk Heatmap: Wage Level vs. Approval Probability

We analyzed historical denial rates to create this “Risk Heatmap” for FY 2027.

Expert Insight: USCIS scrutiny (RFEs) is highest for Level 1 roles because the government assumes “Specialty Occupations” should pay more than entry-level wages.Glossary of Key Terms

• LCA (Labor Condition Application): The document your employer files with the Dept of Labor before the H-1B. It declares your Wage Level.
• Master’s Cap: The 20,000 extra spots reserved only for applicants with a Master’s degree (or higher) from a US non-profit university.
• Weighted Selection: The new rule (proposed) that replaces random selection with salary-based prioritization.

Trust & Verification

• Author: GooExam Immigration Data Team.
• Data Source: Federal Register (DHS Final Rule on H-1B Selection).
• Last Updated: February 2026 (FY 2027 Season).
• Disclaimer: This tool provides statistical projections based on proposed rules, not legal guarantees.

Official References

Verify the rules at official government sources:

1. USCIS Official Page: H-1B Specialty Occupations
2. Federal Register: Modification of Registration Requirement
3. Dept of Labor (FLC Data): Performance Data